In December, overall stainless steel production still showed a significant increase, with the main growth reflected in the 400-series stainless steel [SMM data].

According to the SMM survey, China's total stainless steel production in December 2024 increased by approximately 1.1% MoM and 6.53% YoY, with cumulative YoY growth of about 3.03%. Among them, 200-series stainless steel production rose by approximately 3.35% MoM, 300-series by 1.01% MoM, and 400-series by 10.10% MoM.

In December, stainless steel production overall showed a significant increase, mainly reflected in the 400-series stainless steel. The primary reason was the temporary tight supply of 400-series stainless steel after a stainless steel mill in east China halted production in October. Despite entering the off-season at the end of Q4 and the sharp decline in ferrochrome steel tender prices, the overall price performance of the 400-series remained relatively stable. The market demand gap for stainless steel such as 430 urgently needs to be filled, with cost and profits recovering upward. The production of 400-series stainless steel crude steel increased significantly in state-owned mills in regions such as south and north China, with an overall increase of approximately 52,000 mt. For the 300-series, stainless steel mills showed mixed production adjustments in December: on one hand, some mills with integrated production lines recently added new capacity, and those using integrated processes maintained relatively good profit levels, keeping their operating rates high; on the other hand, some state-owned and smaller private mills faced severe losses due to high NPI procurement prices earlier, with a significant decline in orders during the off-season, leading to a sharp drop in operating rates. However, overall, the 300-series production still increased by about 17,800 mt. For the 200-series, due to the maintenance of a hot rolling line at a large stainless steel mill in south China and declining profits, overall production schedules dropped significantly, while other mills maintained stable schedules. The total production of the 200-series decreased by approximately 33,600 mt.

Entering January 2025, stainless steel finished product prices and downstream demand have essentially dropped to a freezing point. On the raw material side, NPI and high-carbon ferrochrome prices have recently stabilized after declines. However, losses in stainless steel finished products have intensified. Coupled with the Chinese New Year holiday arrangements at the end of January, the overall operating rate and production schedules of stainless steel mills are expected to drop significantly. A short-process stainless steel mill in south China is expected to halt production for maintenance starting January 1 for approximately 1.5 months, potentially affecting total production by about 120,000 mt. Total stainless steel production in January 2025 is expected to decrease by 8.53% MoM, with 200-series down 8.05% MoM, 300-series down 8.98% MoM, and 400-series down 7.9% MoM.

The SMM national production statistics sample includes 36 companies: Dingxin Industry, Qingshan Nickel, Qingshan Industry, Tsingshan Steel, Guangqing Metal Technology, TISCO Stainless, Shandong Xinhai, Jiangsu Delong (including the Dainan Project, Xiangshui Phase II, Liyang, and Zhongtuo New Materials), Beibu Gulf New Materials (Beihai Chengde), Angang Lianzhong, JISCO, Taishan Steel, Dongfang Special Steel, Xinjinhui, Baosteel Desheng, Fujian Wuhang, Fuxin Special Steel, Inner Mongolia Shangtai, Yantai Huaxin, Huale Alloy, Yongxing Special Steel, Shandong Shengyang Jinhui, Guangxi Jinhai, Liuzhou Zhongjin, Guangxi Yongda, Guangxi Xinfeng, Shizong Wolide, Shenyuan Special Steel, Youyi Special Steel, Sichuan Gangchen, Taizhou Huadi, Ningbo ASEAN, Jiangxi Shengda, and Ningbo Yiyue.